● CRITICALEastern EuropeSustained energy-infrastructure strike pattern observed● HIGHRed SeaVessel-traffic anomaly continues in southern transit lane● HIGHEast AsiaMultiple grey-zone incursions across median line in 24h window● MEDIUMSahelCivilian-protection deterioration in northern provinces● MEDIUMAndesMagnitude 6.1 seismic event, shallow depth● LOWGlobalCrypto OTC desks observe elevated cross-border settlement volumes● CRITICALEastern EuropeSustained energy-infrastructure strike pattern observed● HIGHRed SeaVessel-traffic anomaly continues in southern transit lane● HIGHEast AsiaMultiple grey-zone incursions across median line in 24h window● MEDIUMSahelCivilian-protection deterioration in northern provinces● MEDIUMAndesMagnitude 6.1 seismic event, shallow depth● LOWGlobalCrypto OTC desks observe elevated cross-border settlement volumes

Middle East · Country Intelligence

Saudi Arabia

ISO SAU · CAP Riyadh

Vision 2030 capex sustaining non-oil growth; Houthi missile threat re-engaged; Israel normalisation paused.

MODERATE

Risk Score

45

/ 100

Intelligence Signals

Armed conflict40

Governance50

Economic stress35

Social unrest40

Climate stress60

Health system30

Cyber threats55

Energy security30

Food security35

Displacement20

Sanctions exposure25

Alliance pressure50

Latest Developments

Peer countries · Middle East

Multi-front escalation risk persists. Domestic political fractures and reservist exhaustion compound regional spillover.

Proxy network engaged across Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq. Economic distress and succession uncertainty raise miscalculation risk.

Post-transition stabilisation uneven; Israeli air operations continue; reconstruction financing unresolved.

Currency collapse, state-capacity erosion, Hezbollah-Israel attritional exchanges. Reform package stalled.