● CRITICALEastern EuropeSustained energy-infrastructure strike pattern observed● HIGHRed SeaVessel-traffic anomaly continues in southern transit lane● HIGHEast AsiaMultiple grey-zone incursions across median line in 24h window● MEDIUMSahelCivilian-protection deterioration in northern provinces● MEDIUMAndesMagnitude 6.1 seismic event, shallow depth● LOWGlobalCrypto OTC desks observe elevated cross-border settlement volumes● CRITICALEastern EuropeSustained energy-infrastructure strike pattern observed● HIGHRed SeaVessel-traffic anomaly continues in southern transit lane● HIGHEast AsiaMultiple grey-zone incursions across median line in 24h window● MEDIUMSahelCivilian-protection deterioration in northern provinces● MEDIUMAndesMagnitude 6.1 seismic event, shallow depth● LOWGlobalCrypto OTC desks observe elevated cross-border settlement volumes

Middle East · Country Intelligence

Iran

ISO IRN · CAP Tehran

Proxy network engaged across Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq. Economic distress and succession uncertainty raise miscalculation risk.

CRITICAL

Risk Score

80

/ 100

Intelligence Signals

Armed conflict75

Governance80

Economic stress85

Social unrest70

Climate stress50

Health system55

Cyber threats70

Energy security60

Food security55

Displacement50

Sanctions exposure90

Alliance pressure75

Latest Developments

Peer countries · Middle East

Multi-front escalation risk persists. Domestic political fractures and reservist exhaustion compound regional spillover.

Post-transition stabilisation uneven; Israeli air operations continue; reconstruction financing unresolved.

Currency collapse, state-capacity erosion, Hezbollah-Israel attritional exchanges. Reform package stalled.

Houthi maritime interdiction continues. UN truce intermittent. World's worst hunger crisis indicators.