Russia
ISO RUS · CAP Moscow
Active war footing, sustained sanctions regime, and persistent shadow-fleet exposure keep the country in the top-risk band.
Intelligence Signals
Latest Developments
Pentagon likely to cancel missile deal with Germany over fears of Russia
Pentagon likely to cancel missile deal with Germany over fears of Russia Politico
US House backs Russia sanctions, Ukraine aid, in latest blow to Trump
US House backs Russia sanctions, Ukraine aid, in latest blow to Trump Reuters
Some in Putin’s Elite Signal Unease on Russia’s Future at Forum
Some in Putin’s Elite Signal Unease on Russia’s Future at Forum Bloomberg.com
Russia Uses Economic Chokehold To Counter Armenia's Westward Tilt
Russia Uses Economic Chokehold To Counter Armenia's Westward Tilt Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Zelenskyy asks Putin for meeting: What’s he offering, could Russia accept?
Zelenskyy asks Putin for meeting: What’s he offering, could Russia accept? Al Jazeera
Russia Rails Against the West but Welcomes Candace Owens and Andrew Tate
Russia Rails Against the West but Welcomes Candace Owens and Andrew Tate The New York Times
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2026
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2026 Institute for the Study of War
Steven Seagal, Candace Owens and Trump’s ballroom commissioner appear at Russia’s top economic forum
Steven Seagal, Candace Owens and Trump’s ballroom commissioner appear at Russia’s top economic forum CNN
Andreeva dismantles nervous Kostyuk amid tense backdrop of Russia-Ukraine war
Andreeva dismantles nervous Kostyuk amid tense backdrop of Russia-Ukraine war The Guardian
Peer countries · Europe
Front-line attrition continues; energy infrastructure strikes drive humanitarian risk. Western support cadence remains the key variable.
Fiscal slippage prompts EU corrective; political fragmentation post-snap election; New Caledonia situation contained.
Industrial recession concerns persistent; coalition fragility; AfD trajectory under watch.
Fiscal headroom thin; productivity stalled; Northern Ireland stability normalising.