Bahrain

Multi-front escalation risk persists. Domestic political fractures and reservist exhaustion compound regional spillover.

Proxy network engaged across Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq. Economic distress and succession uncertainty raise miscalculation risk.

Post-transition stabilisation uneven; Israeli air operations continue; reconstruction financing unresolved.

Currency collapse, state-capacity erosion, Hezbollah-Israel attritional exchanges. Reform package stalled.